COVID Outcome Prediction in the Emergency Department (COPE)

Development and validation of a model for predicting death and need for intensive care in COVID-19 patients.

Using data from four large Dutch hospitals, Hester Lingsma, David van Klaveren and colleagues developed a model that predicts the probability of death and of ICU admission for patients presenting at the emergency room with COVID-19. The prediction model – COVID Outcome Prediction in the Emergency Department (COPE) – is based on quickly and objectively measurable variables: age; respiratory rate; C-reactive protein; lactate dehydrogenase; albumin; and urea. The predictive ability of COPE (calibration and discrimination) was very good in patients in the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tool is widely used in emergency departments of Dutch hospitals. The development and validation of COPE is described Open Access on medRxiv (doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249023). COPE has also been implemented in a web application (https://mdmerasmusmc.shinyapps.io/COPE/).