Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic

We felt the urgent need to offer our expertise of infectious disease modelling to provide some clarity in the uncertainty of a new pandemic. The thought “Holy fuck, that timeline!” literally led us to become engaged with the media (newspapers, radio, and TV) throughout the year, where we relayed two main messages: (1) this epidemic will take a long time, up to two years, and (2) a second wave is inevitable. Our mathematical model for COVID-19 was celebrated as an example of transparent and reproducible open-source science and has become the basis of several studies focusing on the impact of individual and geographic variation in the risk of infection and transmission.

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